Welcome to India Market Access
Macro Economic Overview
GDP growth rates for BRICS
India continues to outperform its BRICS peers, remaining among the world’s fastest-growing major economies despite persistent global uncertainties. Real GDP growth accelerated to 7.8% in FY26, from 7.2% in FY25. Despite the geopolitical concerns around West-Asia crisis, growth momentum remained strong in the opening quarter of FY27, with real GDP expanding by 7.8% in Q1 FY27, compared with 6.9% in Q1 FY26, supported by robust investment, household consumption, manufacturing and services activity. Looking ahead, the IMF projects India’s real GDP growth at 6.4% in FY27, while the RBI projects slightly higher at 6.7%.
Quarterly Y-o-Y Real GDP growth for BRICS nations (in %)
Source: CEIC, NSE EPR
Notes: 1) Latest data available is for the quarter ended March 2026.
CPI trend for BRICS
India’s retail inflation rose to a 20-month high of 4.82% in August 2026, from 4.45% in July, remaining above the RBI’s 4% target for the third consecutive month. The increase was driven mainly by food inflation, which rose to 5.95% from 5.52%, while core inflation edged up to 4.1% from 3.8%. The RBI forecasted FY27 CPI inflation at 5.0%, with inflation projected at 5.9% in Q3 FY27. Across BRICS economies, inflation trends were mixed, with Brazil and South Africa recorded moderation, while China and Russia saw an uptick in August.
YoY% change in Consumer price inflation for BRICS
Source: CEIC, NSE EPR
Notes: 1) Data for South Africa available till July 2026
Fiscal Balance
India’s fiscal position reflects continued consolidation, with improving deficit indicators supported by strong revenue mobilisation and disciplined expenditure. The Central Government fiscal deficit is budgeted at 4.3% of GDP in FY27, lower than 4.4% in FY26, while the overall general government deficit (Centre+ States) is estimated at 7.4% of GDP in FY26. Overall, the government remains on track with its fiscal roadmap while sustaining capital expenditure to support growth, reflecting a balanced approach of discipline and development.
General Government Fiscal Balance as a Percentage of GDP
Country Economic Data (2014-2026)
Note:
1) Data for India is for the respective fiscal years. For example: 2024 pertains to the fiscal year FY25 (April 2024 to March 2025) and so on. For all other countries, the data pertains to calendar year.
2) Definition of General Government fiscal balance as a % of GDP: IMF defines this as Net lending (+)/ borrowing (-) is calculated as revenue minus total expenditure. This is a core GFS balance that measures the extent to which general government is either putting financial resources at the disposal of other sectors in the economy and nonresidents (net lending), or utilizing the financial resources generated by other sectors and nonresidents (net borrowing). This balance may be viewed as an indicator of the financial impact of general government activity on the rest of the economy and nonresidents (GFSM 2001, paragraph 4.17). Note: Net lending (+)/borrowing (-) is also equal to net acquisition of financial assets minus net incurrence of liabilities.
3) General Government includes Centre, States and Local Governments.
4) Positive balance indicates surplus, negative balance indicates deficit.
5) Projections for Brazil, France, Japan start after year 2024 and for all other countries it starts after 2025.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook – July 2026
Policy rate
Global policy rates remained divergent amid evolving growth and inflation dynamics: Over the 12 months ended Aug’26, policy rates generally trended lower across major economies, while Australia, ECB, Japan and Indonesia raised rates. In 2026 so far, Brazil, Russia and Egypt continued to ease policy rates, by 100 bps, 200 bps and 100 bps, respectively. Amidst rising inflation, three major central banks (US Fed, ECB, BOJ) have raised policy rates by 25bps by mid-September 2026. RBI maintained the repo rate at 5.25% for the fourth consecutive meeting, following cumulative easing of 125 bps since January 2025. Major central banks continue to remain cautious and data-dependent amid evolving global uncertainties.
Nominal policy repo rate
Source: CEIC, LSEG Workspace, NSE EPR.
Notes: 1) UAE = United Arab Emirates
Yield on Government Bonds
Yields of 10-Year Government Bonds (in %)
Source: LSEG Workspace
Notes: 1) Data updated till August 2026
Yields of 1-Year Government Bonds (in %)
Source: LSEG Workspace
Notes: 1) Data updated till August 2026
India PMI (Purchasing Managers Index)
India’s PMI indicators remained in the expansionary zone in August 2026, although growth momentum moderated from the previous month in Manufacturing. Manufacturing PMI eased to 52.8 from 53.5, while Services PMI increased to 54.1 from 53.3, resulting in the Composite PMI remaining constant at 54.3. Despite the sequential moderation, all three indices remained above the neutral 50-point threshold, signalling continued expansion in manufacturing and services activity. The 12-month rolling averages also remained firmly above 50, at 55.4 for Manufacturing, 58.1 for Services and 58.2 for Composite PMI.
Trends in India’s PMI Manufacturing, Services and Composite Index
Source: CMIE Economic Outlook
Exchange rate and FX reserves
India’s foreign exchange reserves surged to a record high of US$740.8 bn as of end-August 2026, rising by US$47.9 bn MoM, supported by a sharp increase in foreign-currency inflows under the RBI’s special forex mobilisation measures. Introduced in Jun’26, the measures offered concessional USD-INR swaps for fresh FCNR(B) deposits, as well as eligible overseas foreign-currency and external commercial borrowings, to incentivise foreign-currency mobilisation. The FCNR(B) window mobilised US$127.2 bn by August 31, accounting for over 93% of the US$136.4 bn raised across the three channels, significantly strengthening external buffers. The INR also appreciated modestly to an average of Rs 95.4/US$ from Rs 95.8/US$ in Jul’26, despite continued geopolitical and oil-price pressures.
Monthly Trends in India’s forex reserves and 12M rolling average exchange rate
Forex Reserves & Exchange Rate
Source: RBI, CMIE Economic outlook, LSEG Datastream, NSE EPR
Notes: 1) FX reserves as of end of month.
2) ER stands for the exchange rate (Rs/ US$), which is the 12M rolling monthly average.