Welcome to India Market Access
Macro Economic Overview
GDP growth rates for BRICS
India continues to outperform other BRICS economies, maintaining its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy despite global uncertainties. Real GDP growth accelerated to 7.7% in FY26 from 7.1% in FY25, supported by resilient domestic fundamentals. The IMF and RBI have projected growth of 6.4% and 6.6%, respectively, for FY27, marginally lower than their earlier forecasts following the recent West Asia conflict. India is expected to retain its fastest-growing economy status in FY28 as well, with the IMF raising its growth forecast to 6.7%.
Quarterly Y-o-Y Real GDP growth for BRICS nations (in %)
Source: CEIC, NSE EPR
Notes: 1) Latest data available is for the quarter ended March 2026.
CPI trend for BRICS
Notwithstanding the recent rise in India’s retail inflation to 4.4%—exceeding the RBI’s medium-term target of 4% for the first time since January 2025—inflation remained manageable in June. The RBI has revised its FY27 headline inflation forecast upwards to 5.1% from 4.6%, reflecting supply disruptions arising from the West Asia conflict, higher fuel prices and potential El Niño-related monsoon risks. Across the BRICS economies, inflation remains broadly within the respective target ranges, barring Russia.
YoY% change in Consumer price inflation for BRICS
Source: CEIC, NSE EPR
Notes: 1) Data for South Africa available till May 2026
Fiscal Balance
India’s fiscal position reflects continued consolidation, with improving deficit indicators supported by strong revenue mobilisation and disciplined expenditure. The Central Government fiscal deficit is budgeted at 4.3% of GDP in FY27, lower than 4.4% in FY26, while the overall general government deficit (Centre+ States) is estimated at 7.4% of GDP in FY26. Overall, the government remains on track with its fiscal roadmap while sustaining capital expenditure to support growth, reflecting a balanced approach of discipline and development.
General Government Fiscal Balance as a Percentage of GDP
Country Economic Data (2014-2026)
Note:
1) Data for India is for the respective fiscal years. For example: 2024 pertains to the fiscal year FY25 (April 2024 to March 2025) and so on. For all other countries, the data pertains to calendar year.
2) Definition of General Government fiscal balance as a % of GDP: IMF defines this as Net lending (+)/ borrowing (-) is calculated as revenue minus total expenditure. This is a core GFS balance that measures the extent to which general government is either putting financial resources at the disposal of other sectors in the economy and nonresidents (net lending), or utilizing the financial resources generated by other sectors and nonresidents (net borrowing). This balance may be viewed as an indicator of the financial impact of general government activity on the rest of the economy and nonresidents (GFSM 2001, paragraph 4.17). Note: Net lending (+)/borrowing (-) is also equal to net acquisition of financial assets minus net incurrence of liabilities.
3) General Government includes Centre, States and Local Governments.
4) Positive balance indicates surplus, negative balance indicates deficit.
5) Projections for Brazil, France, Japan start after year 2024 and for all other countries it starts after 2025.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook – July 2026
Policy rate
In the 12 months ended June 2026, policy rates broadly trended lower across major economies as moderating inflation created room for monetary easing. However, heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the West Asia conflict and its concomitant impact on inflation, kept central banks cautious, with European Union, Japan, Australia, South Africa and Indonesia raising rates so far this calendar year.
In the latest MPC meeting, the RBI maintained the policy repo rate at 5.25% for the third consecutive meeting, following a cumulative 125 bps reduction since January 2025. The RBI has retained a “neutral” stance, signalling a data-dependent, wait-and-watch approach to future policy decisions. Overall, central banks continued to adopt a cautious, data-dependent approach amid evolving inflation, growth and geopolitical risks.
Nominal policy repo rate
Source: CEIC, LSEG Workspace, NSE EPR.
Notes: 1) UAE = United Arab Emirates
Yield on Government Bonds
Yields of 10-Year Government Bonds (in %)
Source: LSEG Workspace
Notes: 1) Data updated till June 2026
Yields of 1-Year Government Bonds (in %)
Source: LSEG Workspace
Notes: 1) Data updated till June 2026
India PMI (Purchasing Managers Index)
India’s PMI indicators remained firmly in the expansionary zone in June 2026, underscoring the continued resilience of economic activity despite a marginal moderation from the previous month. Manufacturing PMI eased to 54.2, while Services PMI moderated to 57.4, resulting in the Composite PMI softening to 57.1. Notwithstanding the sequential decline, all three indices remained comfortably above the neutral 50-point threshold, signalling sustained expansion in both manufacturing and services activity. Importantly, India has consistently maintained Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI readings above the 50-mark, highlighting the economy’s enduring growth momentum and its relative strength among major global economies.
Trends in India’s PMI Manufacturing, Services and Composite Index
Source: CMIE Economic Outlook
Exchange rate and FX reserves
India’s foreign exchange reserves remained comfortable at US$ 666.9 bn as of end-June 2026, continuing to provide necessary buffers against external vulnerabilities despite a US$ 15.4 bn MoM decline. Following the sharp depreciation and record lows witnessed in recent months, the Indian rupee appreciated modestly to average Rs 94.9/US$ in June, supported by easing crude oil prices following easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a softer US dollar, and the RBI’s June 2026 measures to augment dollar inflows, including a special FCNR(B) swap window and relaxation of external borrowing norms for banks.
Monthly Trends in India’s forex reserves and 12M rolling average exchange rate
Forex Reserves & Exchange Rate
Source: RBI, CMIE Economic outlook, LSEG Datastream, NSE EPR
Notes: 1) FX reserves as of end of month.
2) ER stands for the exchange rate (Rs/ US$), which is the 12M rolling monthly average.